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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2016 6:54 am 
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North Korea said it successfully tested a miniaturized hydrogen nuclear bomb on Wednesday, claiming a significant advance in its strike capability and setting off alarm bells in Japan and South Korea.

The test, the fourth time the isolated state has exploded a nuclear device, was ordered by young leader Kim Jong Un and successfully conducted at 10:00 a.m. local time ((8.30 p.m. ET on Tuesday), North Korea's official KCNA news agency said.

"Let the world look up to the strong, self-reliant nuclear-armed state," Kim wrote in what North Korean state TV displayed as a handwritten note.



http://www.reuters.com/article/us-north ... G420160106


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2016 7:04 am 
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A nuclear state that can't feed its people. Think this is just saber rattling to distract the starving masses? Or should Japan and South Korea be concerned?

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2016 7:31 am 
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The data suggests it was a fake, probably a little A-bomb with some hydrogen sprinkled in. Once the little punk dictator figures it out, there will probably be another NK General executed with a Howitzer. Adios! :(


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2016 7:58 am 
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Seismometers detected a 5.1 Richter seismic event at a DPRK test site. I believe the 2013 test was measured at 4.9 Richter and estimated as a 7kt yield device. I 'sat' and 'spoke' last night with a physist friend of mine at John Hopkins and ran through the numbers based on some existing rules of thumb for nuclear explosions in hard rock (as provided by an academic paper analysis of the 2009 nuclear test in North Korea).

Our napkin math suggests that it may work out to a test device in the approximately 8-10kt yield range (but may be as small as 2.5kt), but it's an inexact rule of thumb for converting a Richter-scale event to a subsurface kiloton-scale yield. It's almost in the same range as the Hiroshima bomb, which was estimated to be a 16kT yield and a terribly inefficient device, with only 1.7% of the fissionable material actually fissioning upon detonation (e.g.: they should have been able to do it with 1/30th the fissile material at 100% efficiency). It's not clear what efficiency the North Koreans have attained..

I'm not sure what to say. My first instinct is to insist that it was not possible to pull off a successful thermonuclear design with a yield so small. The smallest yield from a claimed thermonuclear device was from India's 1998 test of Shakti-1, which produced a yield of about 45kT, prompting some international skepticism that India had in fact successfully pulled off an h-bomb design. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pokhran-II#Devices)

This estimated yield is the largest yet from a North Korean claimed nuclear test, and so they're apparently progressing through the challenges of fission weapons design and production. I wonder if they're going to try to mount it on a SLBM in one of their diesel submarines...


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:38 am 
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My guess is that they are working with Iran. Iran has the money and NK can test whatever they want... it's a perfect marriage.

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2016 8:49 am 
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And Iran is working on the delivery systems...

By the way, President Clinton promised that the deal with North Korea made during his administration would make sure they dismantled their nuclear program and never create an a-bomb. Last night they possibly tested an H-bomb. Well done Bill!

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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2016 11:10 pm 
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Thank you for your analysis Chroma. It actually made me feel better about this whole thing, which is
saying a lot given the bad actors they could be teaming up with.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:23 pm 
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You're welcome! I enjoy covering it, it's fascinating stuff. We can only hope DPRK limits their break-out to determent. Surely they must see there's no endgame in which they prevail in any offensive move they could make with their nukes.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 07, 2016 5:39 pm 
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ChromaKey wrote:
You're welcome! I enjoy covering it, it's fascinating stuff. We can only hope PRNK limits their break-out to determent. Surely they must see there's no endgame in which they prevail in any offensive move they could make with their nukes.


Let's hope so. Power and the craving for more of it corrupts rational thought.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 08, 2016 8:09 am 
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ChromaKey wrote:
You're welcome! I enjoy covering it, it's fascinating stuff. We can only hope PRNK limits their break-out to determent. Surely they must see there's no endgame in which they prevail in any offensive move they could make with their nukes.

But surely you realize this 30 year old bubble boy isn't exactly like any other leader on the planet. When a delusional guy like this never sees any consequences for his bad actions, there really isn't any way to know what he is willing to do if pressed in any way.

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