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PostPosted: Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:55 pm 
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Louisvilles, Colorado's Real Capital Solutions predicted the housing crisis - - now they're betting big on what they say is an inevitable boom.

The 84 million-strong Millennial generation has the potential to become the largest home-buying generation ever. Meanwhile, their parents in the Baby Boomer generation--the nation's second largest at 80 million, and by far the richest American generation ever--are fast becoming step-down buyers, trading in their larger homes for smaller pads, as they progress through to adult communities and assisted living.

RCS is betting on what it, and economists generally, sees as the next housing boom, driven by a cycle of new demographic and econometric forces. "We believe favorable demographics and the realization of pent-up demand will drive a strong upward trajectory in housing demand through 2020," Morningstar analyst Brian Bernard wrote in a July report on Lennar Corporation, one of the big public homebuilders. . .

Arsenault calls it a "silver age" of housing--silver, because there are still enough unknowns in the global and domestic economies to produce a recession at some point, but conditions are rebounding sufficiently to have his firm preparing for a surge in demand and investing in once-distressed markets like Las Vegas. Household formations are growing at 1.3 million to 1.4 million annually, according to recent Census Bureau figures; new construction is at 700,000 to 800,000 units annually; throw in demolition of old housing stock, and you come up short some 700,000 housing units.

http://www.inc.com/magazine/201702/bill ... -boom.html


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:05 am 
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Interesting article, long but interesting history of those successful "amateur" entrepreneurial investors.

Interesting prediction, seems to be based on tight supply argument? Prices and down payments seem ridiculously high too me, but they are the "experts". :lol:

Colorado is still fumbling around trying to fix the "condo construction defect liability laws".
http://www.denverite.com/construction-d ... tes-26725/


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 6:09 pm 
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The 700,000 unit shortage is presumably across the U.S.
They feel long-range forecasting is the secret sauce, so I was surprised they don't feel a bubble is upcoming
with prices as high as they are.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 27, 2017 8:42 pm 
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A lot of "experts" did not see the bubble bursting ten years ago either. Like Joe, I think the prices are too high right now but if Trump keeps the economy expanding, maybe it will happen.

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PostPosted: Sat Jan 28, 2017 12:24 pm 
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MR556 wrote:
A lot of "experts" did not see the bubble bursting ten years ago either. Like Joe, I think the prices are too high right now but if Trump keeps the economy expanding, maybe it will happen.


That's why their take on the market going forward is of value - they did predict the housing crises and divested
well in advance.


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